Brazil: Poll gives Lula two-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a slight numerical advantage of two points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, according to a Datafolha survey published on Friday. The study indicates that 46% of voters would support Lula against 44% for his opponent in the event of a second round of the presidential election on October 25, if necessary after the first round scheduled for October 4.
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The survey was conducted among 2,002 people and the margin of error is set at two percentage points. This very tight statistical lead does not allow for a certain victory to be established, thus confirming an extremely close contest between the left-wing candidate and the right-wing candidate.
Other polls published this week also show a very close electoral competition. Quaest gave the two candidates equal standing in a second-round simulation on Monday, while AtlasIntel/Bloomberg and Nexus recorded slight numerical advantages for Flávio Bolsonaro, still within the margin of statistical uncertainty.
The Superior Electoral Tribunal of Brazil has set the official dates: the first round is scheduled for October 4, 2026, and a possible second round will take place on October 25. With more than 158.7 million registered voters, the outcome of the election remains uncertain.
Reporting by Rezo Nòdwès

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